Gain Insight Into Making More Informed Decisions With Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All The Facts

Ross Tartan: Want a reality check? Then read this book.

United States on Nov 19, 2023

Jorge Fortes: Must read, enlightening and very enjoying piece of art.

Bet on this book, there is no chance to lose.. well you just might lose some wrong, bad and outdated ideas you may have about risk, betting and desiton making.

Mexico on Nov 07, 2023

Cliente Amazon: Concetti e consigli pratici per essere più obbiettivi ed efficaci nel prendere una decisione, a volte un pò ripetitivo ma comunque un libro interessante da leggere.

Italy on Sep 29, 2023

Kindleユーザー: 賭けとは何なのか？　また、賭けに対する必要な心構えとは何なのか？　そういったものにフォーカスした一冊です
ただ英語版なので、一部分からない単語などがあった為、日本語版の個人的には良かったと思いました

Japan on Aug 30, 2023

Mark: Annie Duke's fundamental point is that nothing is a "sure thing" & life is a game of odds; the outcomes you experience will always be the product of 2 factors : Luck & the quality of your decision-making.

Annie credits her success to a paradigm shift to Thinking in odds & percentages vs absolutes. Her key idea is to unhitch outcomes from the quality of decisions & realize that sometimes an 80% chance of success will land in the unlucky 20% of outcomes, but , in that case you should probably play ot the same way next time. & it's always a mistake to repeat an unnecessary riak just because a bad decision had a lucky outcome this time.

Her message is that by shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making.

Further she advises to then act as if you were betting big money on your decision.... how sure are you now? If our decisions are bets, we can start to let go of the idea that we’re 100 percent “right” or “wrong," and start to quanitfy uncertainty to...

United States on May 19, 2022

Siddharth Puri: Thinking in Bets answers question atleast for me why poker analogies are hot favourite among entrepreneurs. The books biggest take way is how to think objectively when in decision making mode and remove biases especially towards result. The book gives simple primer which can be applied in day to day life especially if you get excited about ideas and jump into execution or lost out hand to luck

Notes from book

Thinking in Bets - notes

- We as humans remember decisions through It results - this phenomenon is called resulting. Over the years our brain has a build these systems for survival eg rustling of leaves in bushes in past meant animal is around and being aware/going away from the place meant safety/survival.
- Seeking certainty over the years have kept us alive but it doesn’t drive result in uncertain world
- Author talks about brain having 2 systems - reflexive mind and deliberative mind
- Reflexive mind - seems to do things rapidly and automatically, with or without conscious awareness. Every day decision making is dependent on reflexive mind
- Deliberative mind - deliberates , chews over the facts
- Life decisions are not chess...

India on Aug 10, 2020

CL: This book is about how to make better decisions, from the trivial to the most consequential,
in all endeavors of life: personal, business, political/economic forecasting, gambling, etc.
It explains how to think about potential decision options, given that most entail varying
degrees of risky or uncertain outcomes. Without attempting to bog the reader down in
the mathematics of probability theory, the core of most textbook approaches
to decision making, it clearly demonstrates how to incorporate probabilistic
uncertainty into our decision-making thought processes. Since most decisions
we make lead to outcomes which have an element of probabilistic uncertainty,
the book's approach is relevant to all walks of life.
Although Duke does not frame it this way, I think a brief explanation
of two fundamentally different types of situations captured by the tool of
probabilistic reasoning may be helpful. This dichotomy leads to what have
been termed Objective and Subjective probabilities.
Objective probabilities are those associated with outcomes that are truly random
with specific known numerical probabilities governing various occurrences.
For...

United States on Jun 29, 2020

Nathik: Thinking in Bets’ by Annie Duke is probably the best book on decision making that I have read. The Basic idea of the book is that thinking in bets will substantially improve the decision-making skills in our day-to-day life. Annie Duke is a professional poker player and according to her life imitates poker, not chess. Poker is a decision making game under uncertainty over time. It has valuable information hidden, there is element of luck in any outcome. The decision we make in our lives- raising kids, health, business- have uncertainty, hidden information & luck.

What a bet really is?
A bet a decision about an uncertain future. Thinking in bets starts with recognizing that there are exactly two things that determine how our lives turn out:

the quality of our decisions
luck.
Learning to recognize the difference between the two is what thinking in bets is all about.

What’s your best and worst decision?

Take a moment to imagine your best decision in the last year. Now take a moment to imagine your worst decision. Chances are you will equate the outcome of the decision to the quality of the decision. This is because we’re susceptible to...

India on Sep 03, 2018