Kindle-Kunde:
Radical at some points but an important book that no economist or frankly nobody should miss. Spoken by a consultant.
Germany on Feb 20, 2023
C. L. Gray:
Wonderful and detailed book that I feel picks up where The Black Swan left off. If you’re fascinated with uncertainty in your life you’ll love this book.
United States on Aug 30, 2022
Vedran:
This book from an ex governor of the Bank of England and an Oxford professor is not what I expected it to be. Still, it was quite fun to read.
The prose is very light and well written. Some economist humor scattered throughout the book definitely helps readability. But when it comes to books about risk and uncertainty, this book is nowhere close to Nicholas Taleb's books in terms of either charm, scope, or depth. It also, consequently, produces much less self-reflection and thinking on your side.
The book is split in six parts, discussing "the nature of uncertainty", "the lure of probabilities", "making sense of uncertainty", "economics and uncertainty" and "living with uncertainty".
The first part covers the history of probability and statistics, mainly focusing on why these developments came so late in the history of mathematics, even though they are comparatively simple subjects. The second one shows how these mathematical constructs became part of mainstream modeling in economics, business, and other aspects of life. Both of these topics are interesting, but they are covered at a very superficial level so that if you have any familiarity...
Italy on Jun 26, 2021
Chris:
Certainly, as reviewers have opined, “Radical Uncertainty” could be condensed. If so, “the voice” is lost with personal insights that make it of value. What some reviewers have missed is the stories of Kay and King make their point. To list a few pithy thoughts misses the mark. Admittedly, I learned less because I to learn to think differently over a decade plus of managing risk based projects/prospects. Re macroeconomics Brian Arthur’s complexity economics paper fully illuminated conjectures from real life observations. For me, this book is strong reminder about not accepting inherent assumptions, 'seeing with fresh eyes’, open minded in thinking, It is not a book with a methodology for economic decision making or forecasting ... thinking openly, something many time missing. Decades ago Robert Schlaifer pioneered the quant side ... moving beyond quant, the operable is adaptive thinking.
United States on Jun 04, 2021
Piero Tedeschi:
Magistral!
Este livro resume o pensamento econômico de mais de um século de forma brilhante e concisa. Revi is paradigmas da minha formação intelectual e profissional e, com alguma nostalgia, vejo que não são adequados.
Brazil on May 09, 2021
john slocum:
This book is for academics who are familiar with the sources quoted liberally by authors
The chapter on narratives was insightful to understand corporate cultures
United States on Oct 24, 2020
MarkFOC:
This book is a useful antidote to theories of judgement and decision-making generated in lab studies that assume human behaviours which depart from prescriptions of 'rational behaviour' in small worlds of probabilitic risk represent major failures of huamn reasoning. Unfortunately these theories are all too influential in economics, in government decision models which aim to identify optimal choices and in many cases in business.
The authors draw on deep experience and a wide range of research to show how the ways in which we make decisions in contexts of deep uncertainty need profound rethinking.
Whilst as some reviewers have noted there is a degree of repetition of ideas in the book, this is useful in communicating not only the theoretical but practical importance of these ideas.
United Kingdom on Sep 02, 2020
Ian S. Moss:
The point to be made, radical uncertainty is made ... pedanticaly. The resolution so far are stories, some would call them scenarios, an old theme. The attack is on subjective probabilities. I understand and agree, but one cannot help but think that just maybe, there is something there. To sleep, perchance to dream. That is the rub. I think the problem is that seemingly rational man and woman, have appeal, until exactly what that it is, sows dought. These authors have at least left us in that quandary. Rational, yes, but without all the pieces. Humanity struggles to find a logical way, the path is not clear, economics offers one perspective, and an important one, but like most if not all of them ... perspectives that is ... it is not the whole story.
Canada on Aug 09, 2020
Dave Ingram:
I just finished reading the book and found that most of its insights seemed to be reactions to the financial crisis. Most of those books were published 10 years ago. This one, published in 2020, seemed to focus on the idea that models didn't work so well in the financial crisis. And they did not seem to even use their own ideas.
For example, they quote the story about the people giving the "wrong" answer to the question about the woman who is a bank teller. Most people are trained by poor teachers not to answer the exact question that was asked, but to answer the question that the teacher meant to ask. In this case, people were simply filling in the missing words that make the question make sense. The questioner likely meant to ask whether they thought Linda was a bank teller and a feminist or a bank teller and not a feminist. The question that they actually ask makes no sense to most people, so they fix it. (It makes sense only in the context of a class on logic or set theory but it was not asked in such a setting.) This is an example of people building their own context where none is provided. Something that is a general flaw to the Behavioral economics...
United States on May 07, 2020
| Navigating Unpredictability: Making Decisions Beyond Data Analysis | Absolute Surrender: An Exploration of Surrender to God's Will by Andrew Murray | Unlock the Power of Data Visualization: A Storytelling Guide for Business Professionals | |
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| B2B Rating |
79
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95
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| Sale off | $13 OFF | $11 OFF | |
| Total Reviews | 42 reviews | 33 reviews | 81 reviews |
| Hardcover | 544 pages | ||
| Dimensions | 6.3 x 1.5 x 9.4 inches | 6 x 0.23 x 9 inches | 7.3 x 0.6 x 9.2 inches |
| Publisher | W. W. Norton & Company; First Edition | CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform | Wiley; 1st edition |
| ISBN-13 | 978-1324004776 | 978-1546876151 | 978-1119002253 |
| Customer Reviews | 4.4 4.4 out of 5 stars 567 ratings var dpAcrHasRegisteredArcLinkClickAction; P.when.execute { if { dpAcrHasRegisteredArcLinkClickAction = true; A.declarative { if { ue.count || 0) + 1); } } ); } }); P.when.execute { A.declarative{ if { ue.count || 0) + 1); } }); }); | 4.8 4.8 out of 5 stars 1,359 ratings var dpAcrHasRegisteredArcLinkClickAction; P.when.execute { if { dpAcrHasRegisteredArcLinkClickAction = true; A.declarative { if { ue.count || 0) + 1); } } ); } }); P.when.execute { A.declarative{ if { ue.count || 0) + 1); } }); }); | 4.6 4.6 out of 5 stars 4,586 ratings var dpAcrHasRegisteredArcLinkClickAction; P.when.execute { if { dpAcrHasRegisteredArcLinkClickAction = true; A.declarative { if { ue.count || 0) + 1); } } ); } }); P.when.execute { A.declarative{ if { ue.count || 0) + 1); } }); }); |
| Decision-Making & Problem Solving | Decision-Making & Problem Solving | ||
| Best Sellers Rank | #697 in Marketing & Consumer Behavior #1,399 in Business Decision Making #2,134 in Decision-Making & Problem Solving | #98 in Devotionals | #1 in Library & Information Sciences #1 in Information Management #1 in Business Mathematics |
| Language | English | English | English |
| Marketing & Consumer Behavior | Marketing & Consumer Behavior | ||
| Business Decision Making | Business Decision Making | ||
| Item Weight | 1.85 pounds | 3.2 ounces | 2.31 pounds |
| ISBN-10 | 1324004770 | 1546876154 | 1119002257 |
United States on Mar 19, 2023